1Ignacio Vélez-pareja is currently Finance professor at Universidad Tecnólogica de Bolívar in Cartagena, Colombia. He has published research papers in several international journals including Latin American Business Review, Academia, Management Research News and Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. He has been teaching and working for private firms for more than 40 years. He can be reached at ivelez@unitecnologica.edu.co and nachovelez@gmail.com
In this work we show a simplified financial planning model. In reality, financial planning models are huge and cumbersome. This is a very simplified model compared with what is found in practice. We present some basic principles for constructing the financial statements needed for valuation. We show in detail all the items of the financial model and show the formulae to be used for constructing the financial planning model. The relevant financial statements are: the Balance Sheet (BS), the Income statement (IS) and the Cash Budget (CB). The construction of the financial statements starts from input data and policies and/or targets (i.e. accounts receivable policy or target). With these targets or policies we can construct the financial statements. The contribution of this work is twofold: one is to show that we can construct financial statements without the use of plugs and circularity and the second is that we can use a very simple approach to construct cash flows and to value them. Keeping track of value creation is a major duty of management and this can be done with the proposed model. The model exhibits two parts. One is the proper financial statements forecast. The second one is a simple cash flow calculation and valuation exercise using the Capital Cash Flow and assuming the risk of the tax savings equal to Ku, the cost of unlevered equity
Accounting, Forecasting Financial Statements, Decision Making, plugs, Planning and control, double entry principle, unbalancing problem, cash flows, firm valuation, cost of unlevered equity.
JEL CLASSIFICATION: D6, E47, G31, H43
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Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio and Tham, Joseph, (2009), “Prospective Analysis: Guidelines for Forecasting Financial Statements” in S.R. Vishwanath, C. Krishnamurti (eds.). Investment Management: A Modern Guide to Security Analysis and Stock Selection, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540- 88802-4 2. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1026210
Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio, (2008), "Return to Basics: Are You Properly Calculating Tax Shields?", (Updated July 15, 2009). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1306043
Vélez-Pareja, Ignacio, (2007), “Forecasting Financial Statements with No Plugs and No Circularity”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/ abstract=1031735.