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Dr. Amit Sharma is Associate Professor, IMS, Noida, Formerly, Assistant Dean, Accredited American University - Western International University’s (Phoenix USA) Indian Ccampus. He has over 21 years of corporate and academic experience. He can be reached at amitsm65@gmail.com.
The paper uses econometric models for analysing rising education qualifi cations of the manpower in the process of growth of GNP in India from 1972-73 to 2011-12. Period is classifi ed into two parts: 1972-73 to 2003-04 and 2000- 01 to 2011-12 for analytical purpose. Findings reveal that GNP grew 2.82 times more rapidly than total employment and employment of below graduates in fi rst period, but GNP increased 8.03 and 4.85 times more rapidly than total employment and employment of graduates during the second period. GNP increased 19.4 times more rapidly than employment of below graduates, which declined during the second period. Employment of graduates and above rose 1.83 and 5.16 times more rapidly than GNP and employment of below graduates in fi rst period. But, employment of graduates per below graduate increased in both the periods. Employment of below graduates declined in second period, suggesting replacement of less by more qualifi ed personnel. Time series of GNP is found non-stationary, while time series of all three categories of employment emerges stationary on the Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Distributed lag specifi cation of Solow’s modifi ed production function, with graduates per below graduates as determinant of output, yields satisfactory results. The function is also valid on Engel-Granger unit root test of residuals/co-integration. Results of the study lend support to the theses that (i) growth of employment has lagged behind the growth of economy and (ii) more qualifi ed persons have been displacing the less qualifi ed manpower in employment.
GNP, Growth, Education qualifi cations, Employment, Graduates and above, Distributed lag model, Engel-Granger unit root test.
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